Overall net employment balance (NEB) – the difference between employers expecting an increase in staff levels and those expecting a decrease over the next three months – fell from +13 last quarter to +8 this quarter, according to the CIPD’s Labour Market Outlook report, published today (12 May).
A quarter (24%) of employers plan to make redundancies in the next three months, the CIPD's data suggests. A similar proportion (27%) of employers conducted a redundancy programme in the last year.
Redundancies affect everyone, not just those who are made redundant, explained the CIPD’s director of profession, David D’Souza, so HR must support the entire organisation through the process.
D'Souza told HR magazine: “It's not about processing people; it's about supporting people through a process. That means everyone: those directly affected, the managers supporting them and the people that will remain in the organisation. Training for line managers will be important to ensure that processes are followed and there is a consistent approach, but also so that they feel supported and confident.
"Employers should explore all alternatives and consult meaningfully with those affected, clearly explaining the reasons for redundancy, the steps taken to avoid it, and options for redeployment where possible. Sensitive handling makes a real difference.”
Read more: Redundancy rounds top reason other employees want to quit
Managers should also feel supported by HR if needed when making redundancies, added Briony Richards, senior associate at law firm Charles Russell Speechlys.
Speaking to HR magazine, she advised HR leaders to “have conversations with managers upfront about the importance of meaningful consultation, and ensure they are provided with adequate information about how to conduct a consultation meeting (this could include providing scripts or 'points-to-note' documents).
“Explain that, when speaking with at-risk employees, managers should not feel pressure to answer questions if they are unsure – it’s okay for them to say that they will take the question away and look into it. Encourage managers to speak with HR (or in-house counsel) whenever they are uncertain.”
Read more: Unsettled hiring outlook impacts business confidence
Managers should also communicate with remaining staff, to ensure that they feel supported during redundancies, added D’Souza.
He said: “Regular, honest, two-way communication throughout the redundancy process, from line managers to all staff, is vital to avoid misinformation and gaps in communications, which can happen given sensitivities involved.
“Managers should be prepared to deal fully with people’s feedback and concerns, and ensure that the information given out is clear and understood. They will also need to know where to access support for themselves or their teams."
The retail and education sectors are facing the highest hiring pressures, according to the CIPD's research.
The NEB for the retail sector fell from +23 in autumn 2024 to –19 this quarter. One in 10 retail employers expect there will be an increase in staff levels in the next three months.
Read more: Legal-ease: Redundancy
In the education sector, the NEB fell from +4 last quarter to -13 among employers in compulsory education, which includes primary and secondary education, and from 0 last quarter to -7 among those in non-compulsory education, which includes vocational and higher education institutions.
The public sector was described as having the most ‘hard-to-fill’ vacancies: 44% employers reported having them, compared to 33% of overall employers.
The CIPD commissioned the polling provider YouGov to survey 2,004 senior HR professionals and decision-makers in the UK. Fieldwork was undertaken between 24 March and 15 April 2025.
