The report, published yesterday (10 September), identifies the following job roles as being at a high risk of being less valuable by 2035: secretarial, administrative, sales, skilled tradespeople working in construction and electrics, care workers, cleaners, hospitality staff, warehouse staff, and customer service agents.
A very low proportion (between 3% and 4%) of workers in these high-risk occupations changed from a high-risk job to another at the same level or higher, in England, over the last decade.
How can HR leaders support employees in moving from jobs that likely will not exist in the future, to more secure roles?
Speaking to HR magazine, Amy Brann, founder of the consultancy Synaptic Potential, advised: “HR leaders can support people by creating a strong learning culture, where people have experiences of learning new things and demonstrating agility when it comes to skills.”
For Pavan Bilkhoo, director of the consultancy LACE Partners, HR's task is to identify the areas of work that are changing, through automation or new delivery models, and understand the skills needed to perform the work in future.
“Targeted skill-building must take place,” she told HR magazine. “We know that people have many professions in their lifetime. Making sure that we’re using the language of skills gives the workforce reassurance that they are capable of work beyond their current job title.”
Read more: Skills gap to worsen by 2035, research suggests
Older workers in roles that are at a high risk of declining, such as those in retail jobs, are much less likely to move into growing occupations, the NFER’s report shows. More than 40% of workers in high-risk occupations are aged above 45. Around 15% of people in this age bracket successfully switch to low-risk roles.
However, the report also shows that people who work in high-risk occupations are far more likely to move into growing occupations if they have higher education or training.
HR should be wary of offering age-tailored training support though, according to Bilkhoo: “Using age as a way of tailoring support can be unhelpful. Rather, we should rather focus on where transferable skills need to be built.”
“Change is possible at any age,” Brann reminded, “but people over the age of 45 may need more scaffolding and encouragement to see how they can pivot, further upskill and adapt.”
On upskilling, Bilkhoo warned that employers may need a mindset shift to encourage a focus on skills over qualifications. She added: “Valuable experiences can come from a range of previous jobs, or other life experiences.”
Read more: ONS figures: Labour market 'reasonably steady'
Larger employers in declining sectors could be seen as having a greater responsibility to address the problem. This group of employers should support workers in finding more future-proof jobs, the NFER suggested.
“Large employers of workers in high-risk occupations can help employees change career into a growing, better-paid occupation while staying with the same employer,” Jude Hillary, the NFER’s co-head of UK policy and practice, told HR magazine.
He added: “Employers of workers in growing, ‘low-risk’ occupations are likely to face heightened competition for workers to do those jobs. The report also suggests there may be significant mismatches between the skills and qualifications they expect from workers in these roles and the skills and qualifications possessed by workers from ‘high-risk’ occupations. Those employers should consider reflecting on their recruitment practices, and the barriers they might present to employing workers displaced from high-risk occupations.”
Additionally, the report illustrates that people in London and the south are more likely to move from roles at a high risk of decline, to low-risk roles. This suggests that workers outside of these areas have less opportunity to leave declining occupations.
