The first ingredient is the great deals in the stores. This year the prices of many products are at an all-time low. As Jonathan de Mello, director of retail at analysts Experian, has observed "big-ticket items have come down massively, but next year I think they will go back up again. So now is the time to buy." The second is the confidence to spend. With Nationwide's Consumer Confidence Index at its highest level since early 2008, the building society's head of economic and market analysis, Mark Saddleton, commented recently: "Expectations for the future economic situation are buoyant, reflecting widespread reports from various industry commentators suggesting that the worst of the recession is over."
As for that final ingredient - well we all know the British like nothing better at the end of a rotten year than sticking two fingers up at the tough times they've been through, and having a jolly good Christmas blow-out.
For people in McDonald's and the wider 'informal eating out' sector this adds up to one thing - December is going to be a busy month. Now, that's clearly great news for the coffee shops, quick service restaurants, sandwich bars and pubs that make up the sector. But research has shown it's great news for the wider economy too.
Earlier this year McDonald's sponsored a major independent study, Eating Out in the UK, by retail specialists Allegra Strategies. It surveyed the attitudes and behaviours of more than 2,350 consumers, and conducted interviews with 130 senior executives at restaurant chains and independent operators across the UK to get feedback on the strategic challenges facing the sector.
In short, it was thorough. At first glance it might even look a little over the top for a survey into the places where we grab a bite to eat, or enjoy a pie and a pint with friends. However, because so many of us do these things, the informal eating out sector is a significant industry in its own right.
But it's an industry most people rarely even think about. This is what makes some of Allegra's findings all the more remarkable.
Last year, consumers ate one in every eight meals outside of the home - which means the UK informal eating out market is currently estimated to be worth £40.3 billion. Add to that the fact the sector now employs one in 20 of the UK workforce and it's clear we're looking at an industry that demands a rather more formal assessment - which is exactly what Allegra did. In fact it looked at the Gross Value Added (GVA).
Introduced by the Office for National Statistics in 2005, GVA measures the contribution to the economy of UK industries. What Allegra found was that informal eating out is now one of the top 10 contributors to national GVA.
The report also highlighted that the informal eating out sector will play an important role in revitalising the high street, enhancing the overall shopping and leisure experience for consumers by employing up to 70,000 more people over the next five years.
So, is this the season to be jolly?
I think it might be. If the analysts have got it right, the anticipated festive spending spree in our shops and restaurants will be just what the economy needs to kick-start the recovery we're all hoping for. For HR professionals it will be the end of the daily deluge of depressing emails trying to sell services of doom, and herald a future where we can begin to focus once again on the positive contribution HR can make to organisations - in other words, the reason most of us got into HR in the first place.
Have a very happy Christmas.
- David Fairhurst is senior vice-president/chief people officer, McDonald's Restaurants Northern Europe
