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Private sector leaders most pessimistic about predicting business insolvencies, finds CMI

A report released by the Chartered Management Institute (CMI) reveals the concerns held by the UK’s managers and leaders about the current economic situation – with less than one in 10 expecting any growth to GDP over the next 12 months.

CMI's bi-annual Economic Outlook report does, however, also offer a glimmer of hope, outlining senior executives' views on the state of the economy in 12 months and beyond.

Just 8% of the 616 leaders surveyed for the report said they expect GDP to grow within the next 12 months - a figure that has dropped from 15%, six months ago.

More than three-quarters (76%) believe business insolvencies will increase over the next year and more than two-thirds (68%) also think that it is likely the UK will go back into recession.

Half of those surveyed suggest their organisation has implemented a recruitment freeze and 46% anticipate a decrease in recruitment budgets between now and March 2012. But respondents in the private sector are most pessimistic about future employment opportunities; 81% of private sector managers expect that employment levels will decrease or stagnate compared to 73% in the public sector and 70% in the third sector.

Following a day of the Conservative Party Conference devoted to discussions on how to rebalance the economy, yesterday's report has serious implications for the Coalition Government's plan for the private sector to lead the UK back into growth and provide jobs for those lost in the public sector.

It shows a growing sense of impatience with the actions being taken to reduce the national deficit. 60% of respondents, for example, expect levels of Government debt to have a damaging impact on their business in the next 12 months and a quarter of managers and leaders (25%) now think the Government is not acting quickly enough to reduce the deficit (up from 11% in March, this year).

This increasing impatience is most pronounced in the private sector, where 33% want faster action. Concerns about deficit reduction (60%) are second only to fears about how to meet rising energy costs (72%) when leaders prioritise their biggest challenges for the future.

CMI's director of policy and research, Petra Wilton, said: "It's clear that managers in all sectors are very concerned about the immediate future of the organisations they run, and the economy more widely. Given the pressure on the private sector to spearhead the recovery, however, the predictions of business leaders make particularly uncomfortable reading. We've heard a great deal about the recent warnings from the IMF, downward revisions of GDP forecasts and stock market turmoil but this report tells us what the implications of all these challenges actually mean for the senior manager or business leader on the ground.

"Three years on from when the UK fell into recession, things don't seem to have moved forward for managers and leaders - they still have to cut costs through redundancies and recruitment freezes, morale continues to worsen and half feel insecure in their own jobs. It's not surprising, therefore, that an increasing number of organisations would like to see more being achieved sooner by the Government's deficit reduction measures."

A majority of managers and leaders believe the Government is not powerless to act, with 66% agreeing it can take steps to encourage growth. Top of the 'policy wish list' is the simplification of taxes (called for by 89%), tax breaks to aid employers in investing in skills development (85%) and more Government funding for apprenticeships (77%).

616 CMI members were surveyed for the report which was compiled between Friday 2nd September and Monday 19th September.