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Budget 2009 predictions: Odds show employers' National Insurance contributions hike likely to be deferred to 2012

The proposed 0.5% increase in employers' National Insurance Contributions, announced in the pre-Budget report in November, will probably be deferred from 2011 until 2012, according to MacIntyre Hudson.

The accountancy firm also predicts the chancellor, Alistair Darling, will introduce a new lower rate of employers' National Insurance Contributions at 5% for staff earning up to £20,000 from 2011 and a new higher rate of 17.5% for those earning over £40,000 from 2012.

Currently employers pay a flat rate of 12.8% regardless of how much employees earn but reducing the rate for those earning less will be politically attractive for the Labour Party, according to MacIntyre Hudson.

The firm also believes the Government will impose heavier taxes on high earners while offering relief to pensioners.

Nigel May, tax principal at the firm, said: "The chancellor has already indicated he will seek to help pensioners, who often depend on the income from modest savings to supplement their pensions, and who have suffered most from the reduction of interest rates. The most effective way to achieve this would be to exempt the first £5,000 of pensioners investment income from income tax.

"The current political mood allows the chancellor to recover significant revenue by increasing taxes on the investment income of the better off. There won't be many backbenchers weeping for the bankers on this one."

Budget odds from MacIntyre Hudson. Click here for what some other experts think will come up next week.

Deferral of increase in Employers' NI rate to 20124-6
Introduce top rate of income tax of 45% in 20112-5
Extend capital gains tax to the disposal of all UK property regardless of the domicile or residence status of the owner3-1  
Deferred increase in small companies rate of corporation tax2-1
Introduction of a banded system of employers NI4-1
Reintroduction of investment income surcharge5-1
Return of fuel duty escalator on petrol3-1
Staggered increase in VAT to 22% in 2012

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