This time last year I predicted that we would have a case study inleadership played on the front pages of our newspapers and I am glad tosay that for once our political leaders did not disappoint. Two havegone - both I would argue before they really wanted to - and one hasrisen, fallen and seems to have risen again, though no one knows for howlong.
Let us start with the demise of Tony Blair and Sir Menzies Campbell.Blair's legacy will remain controversial. His term in office will bedefined by the most divisive decision he took in 10 years: Iraq. As aleader he failed to make a convincing case and build a sharedunderstanding of the facts before taking a very significant decision.Those who were not convinced at the time are even less so now and manyof those who accepted the arguments put forward are now disillusioned.Leadership is about knowing what to ask and how to ensure the answersyou get help you make the right choices. The suspicion is that Blair'ssearch for data was filtered by a crusader-like zeal that was alwayslooking for justification.
Campbell's legacy on the other hand will be defined by what he couldn'tdo, rather than what he did. My own attitude to the prevalence of agediscrimination has changed considerably as I watched an able andexperienced man becoming so frustrated with the unwillingness of themedia to move away from his age that he eventually stepped down.Leadership is as much about knowing when to recognise failure as it isabout success and Campbell's decision to step down at a time and in amanner of his own choosing is a fine example of a very tough leadershipdecision: knowing when to go.
David Cameron starts the year as the longest serving of our threeleaders. The arrival of a fresh prime minister, although well trailed,seemed to take him by surprise and the delivery of some significantpolicy reviews set up under his leadership were never really used to thefull impact. This showed a lack of confidence which was reinforced bythe new prime minister's first couple of months in office. Cameron'sresurrection, however, has come less through anything he or his partyhave done and much more through the trials and tribulations of hisopponents. He still hasn't convinced as many people as he would likethat he has the substance required for government. Leadership is aboutproviding vision, strategy and a map of the journey to get there. Forme, Cameron's challenge is the same as it was last year: proving that hehas more than just great presentation skills. He needs to demonstrateboth judgment and drive for a vision that is more than just gettingelected.
For Gordon Brown it has been the best of times and the worst of times.His attempts to break out of the tribal nature of party politics withsome imaginative appointments and approaches showed real leadershipconfidence and a sense of purpose. The tribal approach to 'the electionthat never was' by those around him undermined his great start almostentirely. Northern Rock and the data issue at HMRC could not have beenpredicted but both also reflect different values from those he espousedat the start of his premiership. At all times effective leaders need toarticulate the values they hold and then live by them in all that theydo.
We end with the new boy, Nick Clegg. His challenge in the first fewmonths of this year is to demonstrate who he is as a leader. There is nodoubt he is a very nice man but you need to be far more than that,especially as a third party leader. He needs to demonstrate a powerfuldrive, show judgment in the issues he chooses to espouse todifferentiate his party and put his undoubted influencing skills intogetting his own vision and direction in front of the voters. Clegg isthis year's dark horse. If he delivers to his potential he could turnwhat promises to be an interesting year into a fascinating one.
