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SMEs see domestic demand 'flatlining', impacting on recruitment, finds CBI

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Sentiment has fallen sharply among the UK's small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), as firms predict a slight decline in production over the next three months, the CBI said today.

Of the 412 respondents to the CBI's latest quarterly SME Trends Survey published this morning, 27% said domestic orders rose in the three months to October and 27% said they fell – the resulting balance of 0% was the lowest since January 2010 (-10%). Over the same period, export orders fell (-8%) for the first time since October 2009 (-13%) and disappointed expectations of a modest increase (+8%).

In line with expectations of stagnant orders and falling stocks, manufacturers expect output to fall slightly over the coming quarter (-4%), following modest growth in the three months to October (+6%).

Firms increased their headcount (+16%) for the fifth successive quarter. However, in line with expectations of weaker activity in the coming quarter, manufacturers expect only a slight increase in numbers employed (+4%).

Sentiment about the general business situation fell for the second consecutive quarter. A balance of -26% of firms reported that they were less optimistic than three months ago, the sharpest fall in sentiment since April 2009 (-42%). Sentiment about export prospects also deteriorated (-19), marking the first fall since April 2009.

Lucy Armstrong, chair of the CBI's SME Council, said:"Small and medium-sized manufacturers have seen domestic demand flat-lining in the past three months, and will have been particularly disappointed by an unexpected fall in export orders.

"Firms believe demand will remain flat in the coming quarter and they anticipate a small fall in production. As a result, sentiment has taken a real hit, falling at rates not seen since the height of the recession in April 2009."

In the next three months, firms expect the rise in costs to moderate (+20%), but to still outstrip output price inflation. Domestic price inflation is set to ease further (+6%), while export prices are anticipated to continue rising only marginally (+7%).