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Office for Budget Responsibility's employment forecast "very optimistic"', says CIPD

The Office for Budget Responsibility's reduction of its forecast of public sector job cuts in 2015-16 by 200,000 represents a "very optimistic" outlook, according to the Chartered Institute for Professional Development.

Dr John Philpott, the CIPD’s chief economic adviser, said that the Office was effectively predicting a return to near full employment in the second half of this decade.

"Although the OBR’s central forecast is for a slower economic recovery than experienced following recessions in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, the forecast for jobs is clearly very optimistic," Philpott said.

"While unemployment is forecast to rise slightly in 2011 the overall outlook for jobs is positive, presaging a return to near full employment in the second half of the decade.

"If employment, unemployment and average earnings follow the path forecast by the OBR the ‘era of austerity’ will be felt more in workers’ pockets and living standards than in terms of lost jobs. As such the OBR forecast is most encouraging but it is still too soon to conclude that a rosy outlook for jobs is a dead cert."

The OBR was established by the coalition government to assess the likelihood of treasury predictions over the economy being accurate.