Accurate and timely jobs data is crucial to the nation’s economic agenda, and it is essential for monitoring the government’s 80% employment rate target. For business leaders, this data is pivotal to informing staffing decisions and talent-mapping strategies.
Unfortunately, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – the usual go-to for this information – is facing significant challenges. Its ‘transformed labour market survey’ is in development but, as it’s not expected until 2027, UK businesses still face several years of uncertainty about jobs figures.
“Accurate jobs data is the foundation of good decision-making for HR leaders,” confirms Kevin Fitzgerald, UK managing director for the HR software business Employment Hero. “It drives workforce planning, recruitment and retention strategies. Without it, decisions become guesswork, which can hurt business growth and employee engagement.”
June Ahi, chief people officer for technology firm Cashflows, agrees: “Access to high-quality data enables strategic workforce planning, helping organisations identify, attract and retain top-tier talent. By understanding employment trends and labour market conditions, HR leaders can anticipate future workforce needs, align recruitment strategies with business objectives and maintain a competitive edge in their industry.”
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Impact on trust
Issues such as low survey response rates and rumoured data inaccuracies have led some HR leaders to lose faith in the ONS. Kate Shoesmith, deputy chief executive officer at the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, has called for the ONS to take measures to “enhance and maintain trust in its monthly Labour Force Survey”.
Fitzgerald adds to this: “HR leaders are questioning the reliability of these figures, and rightly so. How can anyone plan their workforce strategy when the data is incomplete or potentially inaccurate?”
That said, he confirms that the ONS’ quoted rise in economic inactivity for working people aged 18 to 24 and 50 to 64 – something generally thought to be a statistical error – is a pattern that Employment Hero has seen in its own data: “In December, for example, there were 0.7% fewer 18-to-24-year-olds in full-time employment compared to November, and 0.3% fewer workers aged over 55.”
Lehua Stonebraker, senior vice president of people at SmartRecruiters, urges HR leaders to see this question of trust as an opportunity to get clever and look at the big picture: “For example, if ONS figures suggest rising inactivity among certain age groups, leaders need to cross check that with their own data. Always ask: ‘What’s the story behind the numbers?’ That’s where you find the insights that lead to better hiring decisions.”
ONS as part of the puzzle
With the enhanced ONS data not available until 2027, it is crucial to explore alternative approaches to understanding the labour market. Ahi, who admits that Cashflows’ reliance on ONS has “diminished due to concerns about accuracy and low response rates,” believes its data should be part of a broader benchmarking strategy: “For example, when analysing salary trends, HR leaders should be cross-referencing ONS figures with data from industry-specific reports, recruitment agencies and other research platforms,” she explains. “Relying solely on ONS data – or on any sole data source – can result in flawed insights, particularly when assessing resources, planning, salary benchmarking or assessing workforce trends.”
Sheila Flavell, chief operating officer for the consultancy FDM Group, agrees: “Reliable labour market insights have traditionally been the foundation of effective workforce planning. But now, given lower response rates and greater inaccuracies, HR departments need to view ONS statistics as part of the puzzle rather than the whole truth.”
Beyond ONS
When sourcing other pieces of the puzzle, the Recruitment and Employment Confederation’s Report on Jobs, published in collaboration with KPMG, is a good place to start. The data is considered a “great monitor” according to Shoesmith.
For an accurate picture of market challenges in a specific sector, Flavell recommends combining paid-for tools, such as LinkedIn’s Economic Graph, with free resources like the Department for Business and Trade’s sector-specific reports, as well as immediate, on-the-ground intelligence from industry bodies like the CIPD.
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Similarly, Ahi integrates insights from a range of sources: “For salaries, for example, we work with recruiters for their salary reports. For trends, we’ll look at media articles to keep our finger on the pulse. This holistic approach enables better people strategy development, improving recruitment, retention and workforce planning.”
Larraine Boorman, chair and chief executive of the consultancy Optima UK, highlights the importance of real-time data. She says it comes from recruitment platforms but also internal feedback: “While formal reports and white papers can be invaluable, they’re often outdated by the time they’re published.
“In contrast, engaging with your teams and understanding what customers are saying to them will provide up-to-date and accurate insights into salary trends, market conditions and workforce challenges. Combining these real-time insights with ONS macroeconomic data creates a more accurate and actionable picture, enabling leaders to make better-informed decisions.”
The real-life workforce outlook
Boorman continues: “By layering diverse data sources, HR leaders may uncover distinct patterns that may have otherwise remained hidden. For instance, while ONS data might report a rise in economic inactivity among younger and older workers, real-time recruitment data could reveal parallel trends in skills shortages or shifts in industry demand. Employee sentiment surveys, such as those conducted by Gallup or Glassdoor, further illuminate workforce morale and engagement – critical factors that traditional labour statistics often overlook.
“A blended approach will reveal not just the ‘what’ but the ‘why’ behind workforce movements. It helps HR leaders understand whether shifts in employment figures are due to economic conditions, cultural shifts or skills mismatches, and allows for proactive strategy development.”
Boorman adds that the ONS situation provides an opportunity to empower HR, elevating the function from data consumption to data strategy: “By integrating multiple data streams, including real-time recruitment trends, employee engagement metrics and sector-specific reports, organisations can craft more resilient and adaptable people strategies. This multi-dimensional perspective enables businesses to anticipate talent shortages, adapt recruitment strategies and invest in targeted employee development.”
For Flavell, proactivity is key going forward; she urges HR to address skills shortages by prioritising upskilling and reskilling: “Doubling down on training can help businesses future-proof their workforce and better position themselves to capitalise on trends, regardless of changes in the availability of market data,” she explains.
Meanwhile, Craig Bines, CEO of recruitment technology company The Career Wallet Group, remains positive about the future of ONS, provided that the organisation is keen to explore innovative and joined-up approaches: “By collaborating with recruitment tech companies, ONS could harness the power of real-time job market intelligence to enhance its offerings, ensuring that HR and business leaders are equipped with the insights they need to make informed decisions in the interim. This is an opportunity to modernise how we approach workforce intelligence.”
The ONS viewpoint
An ONS spokesperson stated: “Along with many national statistical offices around the world, the Office for National Statistics is fighting the challenge of falling response rates for household surveys.
“We have taken a number of steps with the Labour Force Survey to tackle this problem, which have already resulted in an increase in the number of achieved interviews. However, because of the way that the survey is structured in several waves, the benefits of this are taking time to feed through completely, and so we continue advise that estimates of change should be treated with additional caution.
“Our long-term solution remains the online-first Transformed Labour Force Survey (TLFS), that allows us to approach many more people in different ways. We will further update users on progress on the TLFS in the spring.”
This article was published in the January/February 2025 edition of HR magazine.
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