· News

GDP growth not all good news, warn business leaders

GDP figures showing the UK economy is growing have prompted warnings recovery will be hampered by low productivity and be felt disproportionately across industries.

Government figures for the fourth quarter of 2013 showed the economy grew by 0.7%, bringing the annual growth rate to 1.9%.

The rate was the strongest since 2007, according to the Office for National Statistics.

However, Work Foundation chief economist Ian Brinkley warned that although recovery was underway, with employment growing faster than GDP productivity figures for the final quarter of 2013 were likely to be “very poor”.

“Preliminary GDP figures in recoveries are often revised upwards, so the underlying position may be a bit better than we think,” he said. “Either way, however, we have a jobs-rich and productivity-poor recovery, and that may not be sustainable over the medium term.”

A mixed bag

Jobs search engine Adzuna co-founder Andrew Hunter commented that the 1.9% annual growth was “still way off the pre-downturn peak of 2008”.

“Growth levels across different industries reveals more of a mixed bag,” he said. “Although the services sector steamed ahead, the construction sector actually shrunk in the last quarter, while production and agriculture remained fairly static.

“In addition, our jobs data reveals that while the number of vacancies in the UK has grown in the past year, advertised salaries have actually fallen.

“With no immediate signs of this changing, the decline is real wages remains a thorn in the side of our economic recovery, affecting families the length and breadth of the country.”

TUC general secretary Frances O’Grady was also cautious about the recovery. “The recovery is yet to reach whole swathes of the country or feed into people’s pay packets,” she said. “This must change if the benefits of recovery are to be felt by both businesses and workers.

“Unless the short-term boost provided by house prices and consumer debt is transformed into investment, rebalancing and higher living standards, the danger is that it will prove unsustainable.”

However, Confederation of British Industry (CBI) director-general John Cridland was more positive about the results.

 “The economy is growing and the recovery gathering momentum. This is good news, and we’re seeing improvement across many different sectors,” he said.

“Our new Growth Indicator echoes this building confidence, showing that output in last three months grew at the fastest pace since late 2007, with strong performances in business and professional services, and manufacturing.

“This is a strong platform for an even better year in 2014, and we expect the economy to continue to strengthen.”