Research
David Woods, 14 Mar 2011
The CIPD has called for a 'more measured debate' on youth unemployment, claiming severe difficulty in finding work is being felt by only a relative minority of young people and the current situation is not worse than ever before.
According to a CIPD report published this morning Getting the measure of youth unemployment, the widespread perception that one in five 16-24 year olds are unemployed is based on a 'narrow and somewhat misleading' interpretation of official statistics while talk of a 'lost generation' of young jobless people is simplistic. The report finds the current scale of youth unemployment is only properly understood in the context of greatly increased participation in post-16 education in recent decades.
This, plus the fact almost 30% of young people classified as unemployed by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are in full-time education, distorts public perception of both the level and rate of youth unemployment.
According to the CIPD it is at present more accurate to say that one in eight rather than one in five16-24 year olds are unemployed. The Institute is therefore calling on the ONS and the Department for Work and Pensions to issue a joint statement on the measurement of youth unemployment to help establish a better informed policy narrative on causes of and solutions to the problem.
John Philpott, chief economic adviser, CIPD, said: "A more realistic picture of the scale of the problem would help move the policy narrative beyond the simplistic 'lost generation' rhetoric. Aside from ensuring that fiscal and monetary policy are conducive to growth and job generation the principle policy focus should be on how best to reduce underlying structural youth unemployment which is probably close to the 9%-10% rate observed prior to the recession and likely to persist even when the demand for labour eventually picks up. "Especially worrying in this respect is the observation that core youth unemployment is not only far worse than desirable but itself appears to have had been getting worse for a few years prior to the recession, suggesting that either the employability of the core youth jobless is deficient and/or that the cost of employing them is too high relative to their labour market value. This implies the need for faster progress on vocational skills and welfare policy, a thorough review of the effect of the national minimum wage on youth employment and an assessment of the case for reducing national insurance contributions for employers hiring young people with limited skills."
2 comments on this article |
Larry Sportello 14 Mar 2011
A recent book 'The Labour Market in Winter' edited by labour market economists Paul Gregg and Jonathan Wadsworth makes this same point: "Unemployment rates may give a misleading impression of the labour market because of the large increase in the fraction of young people staying in full0time education and training. Selection effects may raise the observed unemployment rate since those staying on longer in the education system will tend to be of higher ability and would have a lower unemployment rate than if they had left school earlier." It also notes: "the available information does not suggest that there is a special problem of youth unemployment in this recession compared to past experience. the fact that young people suffer more during downturns is quite consistent with what has happened in previous recessions in the UK and elsewhere. A bigger problem is what was happening before the recession."
Peter Copping 14 Mar 2011
Last time I looked people in FT Education were either counted as "employed" or "looking for work" (see next paragraph) or "not employed". (as is everyone else 16-60/65. The "unemployed" numbers from the Labour Market Survey have no category of 'unemployed'. The 'unemployed' are a weighted average over three months of people of working age saying they are seeking work and who can start in the next two weeks at the time they were asked. People in full time education can be in this category and still be full time at college. There is another group of young people who are employed but not counted who are under 16. About half of my classes (18+) when I was teaching were working or seeking work at any one time. Its best not to look to closely at the NEETs figures either
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